SpaceStock — Reported-vs-Actual Space Alt-Data
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SpaceStock — Reported-vs-Actual Space Alt-Data

SpaceStock is a deterministic, per-company per-quarter panel that joins what public space companies say in SEC filings against independent physical ground-truth — launches actually flown, satellites actually on orbit, and FCC license activity — and scores the signed reported-vs-actual gap: which companies talk more than they ship (narrative ahead of hardware), and which ship more than they disclose.

Preview-only page. Raw ground-truth counts are shown; the computed narrative index, delivery index, and reported-vs-actual gap score — the alpha signal — are withheld. The full panel is not downloadable here and is provided separately after licensing.

Coverage & headline figures

Built from four free, public sources and fused into one scored panel. Deterministic and rule-based — no LLM in the pipeline.

14
Public space companies tracked
keyed by SEC CIK
582
Quarterly panel rows
company × fiscal quarter
8,790
SEC filings (reported)
10-K / 10-Q / 8-K / Form 4
110
Launches flown (actual)
87 successful
600
Satellites on orbit (actual)
1,969 catalogued incl. decayed
0.51
Mean reported-vs-actual gap
signed −1..1

Panel coverage spans 1985Q2–2026Q4 across tracked issuers. Universe (by ticker):

RKLB ASTS LUNR PL RDW BKSY SPIR SATL MNTS SIDU SPCE VSAT GSAT IRDM

Sources (all free, keyless, public)

  • SEC EDGAR submissions + full-text search → what companies report.
  • TheSpaceDevs Launch Library 2 → launches actually flown.
  • CelesTrak SATCAT → satellites actually on orbit (curated per-company name-alias map).
  • FCC ECFS → license / proceeding activity.

What’s in it — schema

Six tables. companies is the cross-source hub (keyed by CIK); company_quarters is the headline per-company, per-quarter panel.

Tables in the dataset
Table Grain (one row =) Notable columns Rows
companies one tracked public space company reported_actual_gap, tickers, sats_on_orbit 14
company_quarters one company × fiscal quarter reported_index, actual_index, gap_score 582
sec_filings one SEC filing (reported) form, keyword_hits, report_date 8,790
launches one launch flown (actual) vehicle, mission_name, is_success 110
satellites one catalogued object (actual) object_name, is_on_orbit, apogee_km 1,969
fcc_filings one FCC filing (actual) submission_type, proceeding, filer_name 29

Columns in company_quarters (the panel)

quarter Fiscal quarter label, e.g. 2026Q2
n_filings SEC filings this quarter (reported)
n_10k / n_10q / n_8k / n_form4 Filings by form
reported_keyword_hits Claim-phrase hits bucketed to quarter
launches_attempted / success / failed Launches this quarter (actual)
sats_added / sats_on_orbit_cum On-orbit objects (actual)
fcc_filings FCC filings this quarter (actual)
reported_index Narrative-intensity index 0–1 — gated
actual_index Physical-delivery index 0–1 — gated
gap_score reported − actual, signed — gated

Sample preview gated

A representative slice of the panel for one issuer (Rocket Lab, RKLB) — the only fully cross-linked company. Reported and actual quarterly counts are shown; the computed narrative index, delivery index, and gap score — the alpha signal — are redacted. Six of 582 panel rows.

company_quarters — RKLB, 6 sample rows (indices & gap withheld)
Quarter SEC filings Launches (succ.) Sats added FCC filings Reported idx Actual idx Gap
2025Q1 22 5 (5) 0 3 0.•• 0.•• ••
2025Q2 43 5 (5) 0 0 0.•• 0.•• ••
2025Q3 38 3 (3) 0 0 0.•• 0.•• ••
2025Q4 38 8 (8) 0 2 0.•• 0.•• ••
2026Q1 32 6 (6) 0 2 0.•• 0.•• ••
2026Q2 49 7 (6) 1 0 0.•• 0.•• ••

Request the full live sample

Get a live sample of the SpaceStock panel — the full company_quarters table with narrative index, delivery index, and signed gap score across all 14 issuers, plus the per-source ground-truth records and methodology.

Request the full live sample →

No full dataset is downloadable from this page. Public data (SEC EDGAR · TheSpaceDevs · CelesTrak · FCC ECFS); not affiliated with any agency or company.