OrbitRisk — Launch Reliability Benchmark
A per-vehicle-family reliability benchmark for spaceflight. OrbitRisk rolls recent orbital launches up to vehicle families and scores success/failure with a deterministic, volume-aware Wilson confidence interval — so a 2-for-2 newcomer never outranks a 200-for-201 workhorse. Built from TheSpaceDevs Launch Library 2 on a rule-based core (no LLM), with raw pages cached for reproducible reruns.
Coverage & headline numbers
The launch-reliability layer is live and demonstrable end-to-end. The on-orbit / cross-link layer (operator survival, family×operator grid) is built and tested but not yet populated — it is on the roadmap, not in this sample, and is flagged as such throughout.
Layer status: Launch reliability — live On-orbit survival & family×operator grid — roadmap
What’s in it SQLite (WAL) · vehicles hub + launches records
Two populated tables drive this sample: a vehicles hub
(one row per normalized family) and a launches record
table (one row per launch). Columns marked with a lock are the
computed reliability outputs — the sellable analytics —
and are redacted in the preview.
vehicles — family reliability hub
launches — per-launch records
Teaser sample 8 of 33 families · computed Wilson & OrbitRisk scores redacted
Raw counts are shown to demonstrate coverage. The volume-aware Wilson lower bound and the combined OrbitRisk score — the part you license — are masked. The full leaderboard ranks all 33 families.
| Family | Manufacturer | Country | Launches | Success | Failure | Launch Wilson LB | OrbitRisk score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcon | SpaceX | USA | 139 | 139 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Long March | CASC | CHN | 63 | 62 | 1 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Electron | Rocket Lab | USA | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Soyuz | Progress RSC | RUS | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Atlas | ULA | USA | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Kinetica 1 | CAS Space | CHN | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Ariane | ArianeGroup | EU | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
| Starship | SpaceX | USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.••• | 0.••• |
Sources & method
- TheSpaceDevs Launch Library 2 — keyless launch log; cached, polite paging.
- Scoring — Wilson score lower bound (95%, z = 1.96); partial = ½ success; low n widens the interval and lowers the score (automatic volume weighting).
- Roadmap source — CelesTrak SATCAT, for the on-orbit survival & family×operator cross-link (built, tested, not yet populated).
Derived analytics, not underwriting advice. Not affiliated with TheSpaceDevs, CelesTrak, or any launch provider.
Request the full live sample
Get the complete scored leaderboard (all 33 families with Wilson lower bounds and OrbitRisk scores), the full launch table, and CSV / JSON / Excel exports.
✉ Request the full live sampleNo dataset is downloadable from this page. Access is provided directly after a short email exchange.